It’s time to go on record with Week 5 NFLpicks against the spread.
This column publishes every Thursday morning. If there is major injury/COVID-19-related news (like a starting quarterback being out) that significantly changes the line, I will update my pick here before kickoff. Iwill tweet out the updated linkif changes are made.
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Now let’s get to it!
Last week: 8-8
Season: 35-28-1
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, FOX/NFLN
The Seahawks’ first five drives last week: Five punts, zero first downs, minus-7 total yards. But in the second half, Russell Wilson started doing Russell Wilson things, and Seattle pulled off the upset against the 49ers. Pete Carroll often gets dinged for his conservative in-game decision-making, but Sean McVay is right there with him.
I don’t like going against the Seahawks as home underdogs, but McVay’s Rams are 6-3 with a plus-57 point differential against Seattle.
The pick: Rams (-2.5)
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-3) | 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFLN
Cordarrelle Patterson morphing into some combination of Randy Moss and Wes Welker has been one of the most baffling storylines of the 2021 season. Patterson was terrific last week and has 354 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage in four games.
As for the Jets, give Robert Saleh credit for finding ways to maximize their talent on defense. New York had seven sacks and 14 QB hits last week in its first win of the season against the Titans. Overall, the Jets rank 10th in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per play metric. I think they can pressure Matt Ryan, and the Falcons’ defense has been shaky. In a pick that I’m sure to regret by around 11 a.m. Sunday morning, I’m taking the points.
The pick: Jets (+3)
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The Eagles’ offense last week: 30 first downs, 461 yards and 30 points. They drove into Chiefs territory on every possession and didn’t punt the entire game. They had three touchdowns called back for penalties. But overall, Jalen Hurts executed the game plan well, and Nick Sirianni did a good job of scheming up some layups for him.
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The Eagles will face a much tougher test against a Panthers defense that got gashed last week against the Cowboys but has played well overall. The same cannot be said for Carolina’s offensive line, which ranks 30th in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric. I think the Eagles’ pass rush gets going in this game, they force a key second-half Sam Darnold turnover, and they pull off the upset.
The pick: Eagles (+3.5)
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The Packers are now 29-7 in 36 regular-season games under Matt LaFleur. They’ve also been profitable from a betting standpoint. In 40 games since 2019 (including four in the playoffs), Green Bay is 25-15 against the spread. Since their Week 1 loss, the Packers have won three in a row and outscored their opponents by 30.
When we last saw the Bengals, Joe Burrow was carving up the Jaguars for 348 yards in a comeback victory. Burrow’s accuracy has been outstanding. He ranks fifth in Next Gen Stats’ completion percentage above expectation metric. I like the Bengals but still need to see more before I pick them in a game like this. I trust the Packers more.
The pick: Packers (-3)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-8.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The bad news for the Vikings: Their offensive line got steamrolled in a loss last week against the Browns. The good news for the Vikings: The Lions are coming to town, and they rank last in the NFL in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric. Detroit’s offense has been more mediocre than bad with Jared Goff. The Lions drove inside the Bears’ 10-yard line on their first three possessions last week but somehow managed to come away without any points (two fumbles and a turnover on downs).
Minnesota’s offense is better than what it showed last week, and the Vikings have a big edge with their one-on-one matchups against Detroit’s defense.
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The pick: Vikings (-8.5)
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
As of this writing, it’s unclear whether Teddy Bridgewater will return after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss to the Ravens. Elsewhere on Denver, left tackle Garett Bolles has already allowed three sacks. Bolles improved last year after a lackluster start to his career, and the Broncos rewarded him with a four-year, $68 million deal. That performance hasn’t carried over to this year. Pass protection will be especially important if Denver is starting Drew Lock.
As for the Steelers, there’s no sugarcoating how bad Ben Roethlisberger has been. He currently ranks 28th in QBR, and the three players below him are all rookies. Roethlisberger had chances for a few chunk plays last week against the Packers and just missed the throws. I don’t think the Steelers are suddenly going to find sustainable answers, but I think they can perform at least a little better than we’ve seen so far. Given how banged up Denver is, that might be enough for a win here.
The pick: Steelers (-1)
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Dolphins turned in one of the ugliest performances of any team last week. Jacoby Brissett and company managed just one field goal and five total first downs on their first seven possessions during a loss to the Colts. Miami’s offensive line ranks 29th in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric. The Dolphins will face a banged-up Buccaneers secondary that is expected to be without four starters— their top three corners and safety Antoine Winfield — in this game. It’s possible that the Dolphins just stink, but I think Brian Flores can put together a defensive game plan that keeps this one somewhat competitive.
The pick: Dolphins (+10)
New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team (+1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Expecting Washington’s defense to regress somewhat this season was reasonable. But they have cratered and are all the way down to 30th in defensive EPA per play through four games. Last week, a prayer by Taylor Heinicke was answered by Terry McLaurin, and Washington got a special-teams touchdown, but there doesn’t appear to be anything that this team can hang its hat on right now.
The Saints’ defense, meanwhile, got lit up by Daniel Jones in a Week 4 loss. Offensively, New Orleans had a bizarre sequence that began with Jameis Winston throwing a 46-yard touchdown that was called back because of a penalty. Sean Payton then inserted Taysom Hill at quarterback on the very next play. He threw deep and was intercepted. It’s obvious every week that Payton is trying to piece together just enough offensively to win games. I think he’ll be able to do that in Washington, and the Saints will bounce back.
The pick: Saints (-1.5)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
From former Raiders executive and currentAthleticcontributor Amy Trask: “I can’t recall a time in almost 30 years of working for an NFL team that a coach remained behind when the team headed home after a road loss. If there were such an instance (and again, I can’t recall one), I am confident it would have been for an important life event (a funeral, visiting an ill loved one, etc.).”
Urban Meyer has been the biggest story in the NFL this week. He’s four games into his NFL tenure, and the team has already had to release two statements: one to announce that Meyer is committed to the Jaguars and not headed to USC; another where owner Shad Khan said Meyer has to regain his trust and respect.
It wasn’t hard to predict that this would go poorly. But the speed and efficiency of the downward spiral is almost impressive.
The Titans are banged up, and they struggled to protect Ryan Tannehill (seven sacks) in a loss to the Jets. But their schedule gets a lot tougher starting in Week 6. They’re the better team, and at 2-2, they need this game.
The pick: Titans (-4)
New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+9.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If not for Meyer, the Steve Belichick memes might have dominated the NFL news cycle this week.
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) October 4, 2021
Mac Jones has looked accurate and decisive, but not exactly prolific. And that’s OK. Playing quarterback as a rookie in the NFL is really, really hard. Jones ranks 23rd overall in QBR.
The Texans, meanwhile, are coming off an offensive performance that’s the worst we’ve seen in the last 22 seasons, in terms of EPA per play. The Patriots are not a “step on your throat” kind of offense, and they will likely take a conservative approach. But it’s Davis Mills vs. Bill Belichick. I’ll take my chances with New England.
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The pick: Patriots (-9.5)
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Five weeks in, Matt Nagy has changed his mind at both quarterback and play-caller. Justin Fields takes over as the starter, and it sounds like offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will call the plays. We saw last week that the pretty deep ball Fields threw in college does indeed translate to the NFL. The Bears had five completions of 20-plus yards against the Lions. They had one in the first three games.
Gus Bradley’s defense has done a good job of limiting explosive plays, allowing just 10 completions of 20-plus yards, sixth-fewest. But the Raiders suffered some injuries at cornerback Monday night, and it’s unclear what their secondary will look like in this one. I think Chicago keeps it close.
The pick: Bears (+5.5)
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
This is going to be a fun matchup, and the nerds (myself included!) can rejoice in the fact that both coaches will likely avoid any cowardly fourth-down decisions.
Brandon Staley’s defensive philosophy is predicated on limiting explosive plays, even if that means giving up some yards on the ground. Kevin Stefanski has no problem running it often. Baker Mayfield was critical of himself after his performance last week against the Vikings and will need to play better for the Browns to leave Los Angeles with a win.
Cleveland’s defensive front looks like one of the most ferocious in the league. Myles Garrett and company dominated last week against the Vikings, and the Browns rank first in pass rush win rate. I’ve been driving the Chargers’ bandwagon since the preseason, but the edge that Cleveland has on both lines of scrimmage has me leaning Browns.
The pick: Browns (+2.5)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
I hate picking Giants games. On one hand, I feel like their offense is a little underrated. Daniel Jones has played well. Saquon Barkley showed some juice last week. Kadarius Toney flashed. And Kenny Golladay was terrific. It would not surprise me at all to see the Giants consistently move the ball in this game. But Joe Judge showed even in last week’s win against the Saints that he’s one of the NFL’s most conservative coaches. Game management has been a consistent issue.
Meanwhile, everything is clicking for the Cowboys’ offense. Dak Prescott has been consistently great, and Ezekiel Elliott looked explosive last week against Carolina.
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I think the Cowboys win, but I’m counting on the Giants to move the ball well enough to keep it competitive.
The pick: Giants (+7)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
The 49ers will either be starting an injured Jimmy Garoppolo or a rookie in Trey Lance. It’s a huge moment for the franchise. If Lance starts and plays well, is there any going back? He didn’t look great in fill-in duty last week, but this is totally different. Lance will have a week’s worth of practice, and Kyle Shanahan will be able to build the game plan around his strengths — specifically his strengths as a runner.
The Cardinals have been legitimately impressive. Kyler Murray has been the MVP so far, and the offense has often looked unstoppable. But preparing for a quarterback like Lance without having any film on how the 49ers are going to deploy him could be challenging. I can’t wait to watch this game.
The pick: 49ers (+5.5)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
It’s been interesting to see how teams have coached against the Chiefs this year. Kevin Stefanski, Brandon Staley and John Harbaugh all prioritized maximizing every single scoring opportunity, knowing they weren’t going to completely shut down Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles did not embrace that same approach last week.
What will Sean McDermott do — especially given how good his defense (first in EPA per play) has been? There were times in last year’s AFC Championship game against the Chiefs when McDermott definitely could have been more aggressive.
The Chiefs rank first offensively in EPA per play, and they scored touchdowns on six of their first seven possessions last week, with their line turning in a dominant performance. On defense though, Kansas City ranks 32nd in EPA per play.
It might not matter because of how good Mahomes is, but Buffalo is the more complete team right now. I like Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the Bills to pull off the upset.
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The pick: Bills (+3)
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
It hasn’t been fully reflected by the box scores, but Lamar Jackson has thrown the ball really well the past two weeks. He’s been aggressive pushing the ball downfield. On the season, 17.1 percent of Jackson’s passes have traveled at least 20 yards; that’s the fourth-highest percentage for any starter. Jackson is fifth in yards per attempt (YPA) at 8.7.
When Carson Wentz faced the aggressive Ravens defense last year with the Eagles, he took six sacks and 17(!) quarterback hits. The situation is obviously different with the Colts, but I think Baltimore’s defense will find ways to get after Wentz in this game.
The pick: Ravens (-6.5)
(Graphic: Wes McCabe / The Athletic; photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
